By the year 1989 Lubomir were working on
problem of long-term hemispheric forecast of the pressure in atmosphere, headed by his
father Dr. Frank Pechala and on similar project having a strategic importance for all over
our planet. Since the year 1989 he have started to work on your first exclusive order of
long-term forecast evolution of GNP, long-term progress of the oil price - strategic raw
materials for the economy of individual states, on system forecasts of an energetic base
of the USA etc.
Altogether Mr.
Pechala have processed more than 3050 strategic forecasts with 86,7% of average success.
The Benefits of Commodity Investment
Introduction Historically, direct commodity investments have been a minor part of
investors’ asset allocation decision. In contrast, indirect investment (e.g., equity or
debt ownership of firms specializing in direct commodity market production) was the
principal means of obtaining claims on commodity investment. In recent years, however,
investable commodity indices and commodity-linked assets have increased the number of
available direct commodity-based investment products. In addition, there is evidence that
indirect commodity investment, through debt and equity instruments in commodity-linked
firms, does not provide direct exposure to commodity price changes. However, there is
little information on the expected, as well as the actual risk and return performance, of
a wide variety of investable commodity indices or commodity linked products that have been
marketed. The purpose of study is, first, to detail the various theoretical arguments for
the risk and return advantages for real commodity investment and, second, to test if
currently available investable commodity forms such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
(GSCI), Standard & Poor’s Commodity Index (S&PCI), or Dow Jones-AIG Commodity
Index (DJ-AIG CI) offer means to obtain the prescribed theoretical risk and return
processes embedded in commodity investment. In the following section, the basis for and
the structure of alternative indirect (e.g., stock funds) as well as direct passive and
active option- and futures-based investable commodity products are reviewed. The expected
return and risk structure for various direct ‘long-only’ futures-based investable
commodity indices are analyzed as part of a fully diversified portfolio (stocks, bonds,
hedge funds, and real estate).Results indicate that the indices have sources of risk and
return (e.g. roll return, real options) that are distinct from traditional assets such as
stocks and bonds as well as managed futures or hedge fund benchmark indices and offer
investors an important area of diversification. Commodity Investment in Asset Management
The increased use of commodity trading vehicles in investment management has led
practitioners to create investable commodity indices and products that offer unique
performance opportunities for investors in physical commodities. As is true for stock and
bond performance, as well as investment in managed futures and hedge fund products,
commodity-based products have a variety of uses. Besides being a source of information on
cash commodity and futures commodity market trends, they are used as performance
benchmarks for evaluation of commodity trading advisors and provide a historical track
record useful in developing asset allocation strategies. However, the investor benefits of
commodity or commodity-based products lie primarily in their ability to offer risk and
return trade-offs that cannot be easily replicated through other investment alternatives. |
